Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 Jul 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/2335Z from Region 3056 (S16E37). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 564 km/s at 13/1837Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/1318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 210 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jul,
15 Jul, 16 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 165
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 008/008-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/35