Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 Jul 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
12/0328Z from Region 3056 (S16E37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 12/1749Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 12/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 12/0652Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 320 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (15 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 165
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  020/024-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    70/50/35