Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/2148Z from Region 3058 (N15E71). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 14/2356Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/1429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 330 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 171
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 170/165/165
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/35