Berrimilla Down Under Mars: Ice Condition Forecast for the Northwest Passage
“The Northwest Passage across Viscount Melville Sound will also be subjected to moderate melt and this will promote open drift to close pack ice concentrations to develop during the period. … The eastern half of the Northwest Passage will only have local areas of very open to open drift mostly first-year ice concentrations.”
Full reports below.
“The Northwest Passage across Viscount Melville Sound will also be subjected to moderate melt and this will promote open drift to close pack ice concentrations to develop during the period. … The eastern half of the Northwest Passage will only have local areas of very open to open drift mostly first-year ice concentrations.”
Full reports below.
FECN16 CWIS 011800 THIRTY DAY ICE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN ARCTIC FOR AUGUST ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 01 AUGUST 2008. THE NEXT 30 DAY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON 15 AUGUST 2008.
Above normal temperatures were observed during the last half of July over the Arctic region south of 74*N while normal temperatures prevailed further north. The breakup pattern throughout the regions is normal except for greater ice concentrations in Cumberland Sound which appears to be 10 days behind normal. The breakup pattern in the Prince Regent Inlet appears to be a week to 10 days earlier than normal and this is the result of there being no old ice in that region last winter. During the last two weeks of July, many fast ice fracturing events were observed in western Barrow Strait, Pond Inlet and Admiralty Inlet on or about the predicted dates. Fracture events in Norwegian Bay, Eureka Sound and Jones Sounds along with an open drift or less route into Home Bay all occurred about 10 days earlier than previously forecast.
Forecast ice conditions for August 01st to August 15th.
A high pressure area located over Greenland will persist during the first half of the month. A low pressure system over the central Archipelago will gradually be absorbed by an intensifying low pressure system in the Beaufort Sea during the first week of August, which will loose intensity thereafter. Moderate to strong southerly winds will prevail over the northern Arctic region while light and variable winds will affect the eastern Arctic regions. Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal everywhere during the first half of August and ice will continue to melt at a moderate pace almost everywhere. By mid- August, Slidre Fjord, Pond Inlet and Admiralty Inlet will be clear of ice. Eureka Sound will only have very open drift first-year and multi- year ice concentrations although heavier concentrations will be possible in the northern section as the ice breaks off from Nansen Sound. The ice concentrations in Norwegian Bay will gradually diminish to very open to open drift. A bergy water route across northern Baffin Bay will develop. All remaining consolidated areas will fracture save a few regions over the north-western section of the Archipelago. The eastern half of the Northwest Passage will only have local areas of very open to open drift mostly first-year ice concentrations. Nares Strait will continue to bring open drift to close pack concentrations of predominantly multi-year ice from the north; however, the entrance to Jones sound will only be affected by very open drift concentrations of old ice. The remaining ice in central Baffin Bay and northern Davis Strait will be open drift concentrations of first-year and multi-year ice with lesser ice concentrations towards the Baffin Island coast. An easy navigable passage will be available between the ice remaining in Baffin Bay and the Baffin Island coast. The ice in Cumberland Sound will have decreased to very open to open drift concentrations of first-year ice with 1 tenth of old ice.
Forecast ice conditions for August 16th to August 31st.
Temperatures will remain above normal for all regions inside the Archipelago while the eastern region of Baffin Island and Ellesmere Island will have normal to below normal temperatures. Ice will continue to melt at a moderate pace inside the Archipelago, but the melt will be slower along the eastern coast and in the Baffin Bay region. By the end of August, the Baffin Bay ice will have shrunk significantly with only very open drift concentrations of first-year and old ice left in the northern region of Davis Strait and central Baffin Bay. Very open drift mostly first-year ice concentrations will be left in the eastern half of the Northwest Passage. Ice in Prince Regent Inlet will have melted to the point that only open drift first-year ice concentrations will be left in the southern half of the region towards Pelly Bay except for isolated areas of close packed first-year ice. Jones Sound will be almost empty of sea ice and ice concentrations in Norwegian Bay should have decreased to very open drift first-year and multi-year ice in several areas. The southern portion of Eureka Sound will be mostly bergy water and isolated areas of heavier ice concentrations will still exist in the northern portion of the Sound. Nares Strait ice concentrations will remain for the most part predominantly open drift old ice with only a few pieces of old ice near the northern entrance to Jones Sound.
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FECN14 CWIS 011800 THIRTY DAY ICE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC FOR AUGUST ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 01 AUGUST 2008. THE NEXT 30 DAY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON 15 AUGUST 2008.
Mean air temperatures during the last 2 weeks of July were normal over most regions except below normal near the Mackenzie Delta. Breakup in the central Arctic is near normal but the situation in the Western Arctic bears little resemblance with past breakup patterns because the southern Beaufort Sea is so open. During the last 2 weeks of July, the fast ice fractured in the Coronation Gulf and Queen Maud Gulf as predicted but Larsen Sound and the Peel Sound fractured 7 to 10 days earlier than forecast. Although M’Clintock Channel is still mostly consolidated, Parry Channel is fractured which represents a pattern roughly 10 days earlier than normal. The ice along the shore near Point Barrow melted sufficiently to allow the open drift or less route as well as the open water route the to develop in that area.
Forecast ice conditions for August 01st to August 15th.
A deep low pressure system over the Beaufort Sea will quickly weaken and move towards the pole. A series of weak disturbances will then move across the western and central Arctic until a high pressure area builds north of Point Barrow during the second week of August. Moderate to strong southerly winds will abate to light to moderate westerly winds until the high pressure builds; then, moderate winds will prevail from the north almost everywhere. Mean temperatures will remain above normal over the central Arctic, however, normal to below normal temperatures are expected west of Banks Island. During the first half of August, the ice will clear from the Coronation Gulf area and melt at a moderate pace in Peel Sound, Larsen Sound and the Queen Maud Gulf. This will leave only very open to open drift mostly first-year ice concentrations with small areas of close packed ice in the central Arctic portion of the Northwest Passage by the end of the period. The Northwest Passage across Viscount Melville Sound will also be subjected to moderate melt and this will promote open drift to close pack ice concentrations to develop during the period. The consolidated ice in M’Clintock Channel will fracture and ice will melt leaving close packed concentrations in the region. The Amundsen Gulf will clear of all remaining ice save a few strips of old ice trickling southward from the Prince of Wales Strait. The Beaufort Sea will continue to be wide open with very open drift multi-year ice concentrations remaining beyond 100 miles of the coast. Open drift to close packed multi-year ice will prevail in the central portion of the Beaufort Sea south of 79*N. The Point Barrow region will be challenging with periods of onshore winds bringing open drift to close pack first-year and multi-year ice concentrations closer to the coast during part of the period as slow melt is forecast in that region.
Forecast ice conditions for August 16th to August 31st.
Temperatures will remain above normal for the areas east of Banks Island while normal values prevail in the Beaufort Sea west of Banks Island. The ice will continue to melt at a moderate pace in the central Arctic region, developing the open water route to Taloyoak during the period. The traditional southern route of the Northwest Passage will be navigable with only very open to open drift mostly first-year ice concentrations in the Larsen Sound and Victoria Strait area towards the end of August. The northern route of the Northwest Passage will also experience moderate melt; however, the multi-year ice left in the southern half of the Parry Channel will gradually become more mobile and spread eastward into M’Clintock Channel and southwestern Barrow Strait area. The Amundsen Gulf and southern Beaufort Sea regions will remain predominantly ice free. The central section of the Beaufort Sea should see larger areas of open drift multi-year ice concentrations south of 79*N. Small areas of open drift multi-year and first-year ice concentrations will still be present northwest of Point Barrow near the end of August but will remain far enough offshore as not to pose any threat to shipping.
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Source: Canadian Ice Service
