Spacelift Washington: Russian Launch Quotas; Rep. Hall on Commercial Space

• U.S. Decision to drop Russian launch quotas hailed by industry

  
  

• This Week’s Feature: Rep. Ralph Hall on Congress & Commercial Space

  
  

U.S. Decision to drop Russian launch quotas hailed by industry

WASHINGTON, July 28 – The Clinton administration’s decision to allow the bi-lateral agreements on space launch between the United States, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine to expire are being hailed as the first step towards a more even playing field in space transportation and a boon to a U.S. commercial space industry sorely in need of a lift. The agreements had contained limits on the number of Proton and Zenit launch vehicles that could fly with U.S. satellites as payloads. Without renewal, commercial launch service providers will be free to sell as many of the Russian rockets as customers will support.

Industry observers seem pleased

“Both sides will not renew the agreements that expire at the end of the year,” said Amy Wade of Forecast International, a Washington, D.C. consulting firm.

Without quotas, International Launch Services of McLean, Va. will be free to sell as many Proton boosters as can be offered, and Sea Launch of Long Beach, California will be pushing Zenit configurations. Both trade deals had placed upper limits of sales of the launcher configurations carrying U.S. made satellites. But the same type of bi-lateral pact with China will likely be renewed if not toughened. “I highly doubt that the U.S. will change the current conditions of that agreement,” Wade added.

Quotas on the launchers were never widely popular but seen by some as added enforcement tools against missile and space technology proliferation by the foreign states. Others also saw the limits as a form of U.S. protectionism of its space markets. “I view any launch quotas as just a stopgap effort to preserve the U.S. commercial spacelift until the industry becomes more competitive in global markets,” said Prof. Thomas Matula of National University in La Jolla, California. Matula is lead faculty member of the university’s Space Commerce MBA program.

Origins following Russian rocket sale

The origins of the bi-lateral agreements were rooted in commercial launch transactions of the early 1990s. In June, 1992 the Bush administration refused to block a Russian launch of an INMARSAT satellite. The $36 million deal was followed by negotiations to set up what industry came to call ‘rules of the road’ that would allow Russian launches of American-made satellites and satellite components. Talks started in the fall of 1992 and were followed by Clinton administration discussions in Moscow. In early May, 1993 a deal was struck by which Russia could sell up to eight launches to GEO orbit through 2000, and three more launches to low Earth orbit. In the agreement Russia pledged to charge launch customers fees no lower than 7.5 percent below existing western prices for the same rough equivalent launch vehicle.

The deal almost came unstuck a month later when the U.S. imposed sanctions on a Russian commercial space firm, GLAVCOSMOS, for allegedly violating the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in a cryogenic rocket deal with India’s ISRO space arm. The Russians pledged cooperation and technology assistance but not hardware for India. Negotiators then signed the launch services pact in September, 1993.

On January 30, 1996 the ceiling on Russian launches was raised to 16 GEO sales, and added the possibility of approving an additional 4. Those additional Proton sales were in fact approved in June of last year, making a total 20 GEO launchers sold. The Proton sales were conducted through a marketing arm of Lockheed Martin called International Launch Services of McLean, Virginia. But the Proton commercial contract had been negotiated even before Lockheed and Martin Marietta merged.

Ukraine followed with Zenit pact

Negotiations with a similar launch services deal with Ukraine began in April 1995 and resulted in an agreement inked in February 1996 that allowed up to 20 GEO launches to be sold through 2001. Some 11 of the approved launches were sold through the Sea Launch consortium that included Boeing as a major partner in the project that gave the Ukrainian booster a Proton-derived upper stage to service GEO and a floating launch platform at sea from which to launch its rockets.

The deal allowed three additonal Zenits to be sold if the demand so required, and five more launches of other configurations (Zenits or Cyclone boosters). The contract eventually supported Sea Launch Zenit sales and Zenits launched from Baikonur from military rocket pads there. The original sales agreement for the Cyclone, signed with Rockwell before it merged with Boeing, did not set caps on commercial sales of LEO-destined payloads.

Without the limits of the ‘rules of the road’ agreements, launch services using the Proton and Zenit will be shaped fully by the commercial market, in concert with the Russian and Ukrainian manufacturing capability. Both rockets are also built and flown to support Russian government scientific and military satellites and space probes, in addition to commercial customers.

Feature: Hall Sees Commercial Space Help From Congress

If the bill proposed by Senator John Breaux (D-LA) to create a federal loan guarantee agency for commercial launch firms ever gets passed and sent to the House, the member from Texas’ fourth Congressional district promises to give it a friendly reception.

Rep. Ralph M. ‘Moody’ Hall told the Space Transportation Association July 26th he would support the bill-and other measures still languishing in Congress to give commercial space firms and launch providers a boost. “I’d support loan guarantees if they get here (the House), and other roles for Congress in helping the commercial launch industry (in the U.S.),” Hall said following a breakfast on Capitol Hill. “I think there is more we can do in the Congress to help,” he added.

Hall, a conservative ‘Blue Dog’ Democrat, has been elected to Congress nearly 20 times since following former Speaker Sam Rayburn, who held the seat until dying from Cancer in late 1961. And while Hall is the ranking Democrat on the House’s Science Committee and space subcommittee, he is supporting his state’s Republican Governor George W. Bush for President. “I have nothing against Al Gore,” Hall said. “I served with him in the House, and on the committee (when Gore was a Congressman),” Hall explained. But a strong personal friendship with former President George Bush and Hall’s conservative bent is keeping his vote for his fellow Texan instead of his party’s nominee.

The party switch is not new for Hall, who supported Bush the elder for President in 1988 and 1992 and Ronald Reagan before that. But should his party retake control of the House this fall, Hall would likely emerge as the new House Science Committee chair. And what would Hall’s space priorities be if that happens?

“I’d give strong support for biomedical work on the Space Station,” he said. “My priorities are in the medical field. There are new discoveries that are awaiting the establishment of that station when we finish building it,” Hall said.

Congress leaves town today for a month-long recess until after the September 4th Labor Day holiday. While the House of Representatives has passed NASA’s FY2001 budget, and the 2001 FAA space office bill as well, both pieces of legislation as well as 3rd party space launch liability insurance renewal are still awaiting Senate action.

Hall expressed confidence that NASA would get back its $300 million cut by the House from the Clinton request, but he said it wasn’t a done deal. “It won’t be easy, because all of the other appropriation bills would have passed by the time we get back,” he explained. “NASA may be the only one left-and that will take it very tough with the spending caps to get everything.”

Hall said he expected to see additional funds added to the Senate version for more Shuttle upgrades, possibly in addition to the NASA FY2001 request. And he said that the push to preserve the Space Launch Initiative that the House deleted would result in the Senate adding most of the $275 million back. “That means something may have to give in there to get all of that,” he said. ‘It’s going to be rough.”

SPACELIFT WASHINGTON © 2000 by Aerospace FYI, Inc. A Frank Sietzen, Jr. company. All rights reserved. Reproduction allowed with permission. The views, news, and information contained herein are the authors own and not affiliated with any other society, organization, or entity. Publication does not constitute endorsement of either editorial content or sponsoring web site.
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