USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 875 (S11E20) produced an M7/1N flare at 27/1552 UTC. The flare was highly impulsive; no associated radio sweeps were observed and no proton events are expected.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Further M-class flares are possible from Region 875.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr

• Class M 30/30/30
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Apr 101
• Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 100/100/100
• 90 Day Mean 27 Apr 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 003/005-003/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01