STS-92 Weather Forecast 10-03-2000

ISSUED: Tuesday, October 3, 2000

VALID: Thursday, October 5, 2000

Synopsis: Tropical Storm Keith is currently over the Yucatan peninsula and continues to weaken but is expected to re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 36 hours, gradually strengthening as it moves northward. The track may be centered more westerly than expected earlier, possibly making landfall near the Louisiana/Texas border. The main concern for launch day will be extensive tropical moisture over Florida that is expected to produce clouds and showers through most of Thursday, however some of this moisture is expected to have moved north of the Cape Canaveral vicinity by launch time.

A significant cold front will move into central Florida by Saturday replacing warm moist air with dry cool air after the front passes. The primary concern on Friday will be weather ahead of the cold front. If the front moves through the local area by Saturday the primary concern will become strong post-frontal wind on Saturday evening. Heavy seas may be a concern in the solid rocket booster recovery area if delays bring the launch into the weekend.

At the 9:38 p.m. launch time on Thursday:

Clouds: 4/8 – 5/8 scattered to broken at 3,000 feet – 7, 000 feet

4/8 -5/8 scattered to broken at 12,000 – 16,000 feet 3/8 – 4/8 broken 25,000 – 30,000 feet

Visibility: 7 miles

Wind at Launch Pad: ESE at 12 – 20 knots

Temperature: 78 degrees

Relative Humidity: 85%

Weather concerns: Chance of lingering showers or low clouds

Probability of weather prohibiting launch: 40% 24-hour scrub: 40%

48-hour scrub: 60%

Solid rocket booster recovery area

Wind: WSW/12-15 knots Seas: 3-4 feet Water Temperature: 80 degrees

Sunrise: 7:17 a.m. Sunset: 7:03 p.m.

Launch Forecast by USAF45th Weather Squadron, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station