STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast

STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast
Vehicle: STS-115, Atlantis
Issued: 6 September 2006/1130Z (0730 EDT)
Valid: 7 September 2006 1558 – 1610Z (1158 – 1210 EDT)
Launch Weather Team: 45th Space Wing, Patrick AFB, FL

Synoptic Discussion:

Today, the Bermuda high ridge is located over South Florida, and a frontal boundary is moving into the panhandle of Florida. West-southwest flow is prevalent over Central Florida, and afternoon thunderstorm will develop in Central Florida and migrate toward the east coast. This pattern continues through the next 2 days. Fortunately, the launch time Thursday occurs before thunderstorms will affect Kennedy Space Center (KSC). There is potential the sea breeze will develop near launch time, causing concern for cumulus clouds within 10NM of complex 39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility. Also, the west coast of Florida will have a potential for morning thunderstorms, and anvils from storms will advect toward the east coast of Florida.

Our primary concerns for launch are cumulus clouds within 10NM of Complex 39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and anvils from thunderstorms along the west coast of Florida.

The weather forecast is similar for a 24-hour delay, and for the 48-hour delay, the probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch decreases as the front weakens and high pressure begins to build back into the area.

Clouds       Coverage       Bases (feet)  Tops (feet) 
Cumulus      3/8 Scattered  3,000         6,000 
Altostratus  2/8 Scattered  10,000        12,000 
Cirrus       4/8 Scattered  25,000        26,000 

Weather: None 
Visibility: 7 miles 
Wind: 120 deg @ 8 - 12 KT (60 foot pad winds) 
Temperature: 85 F   RH: 70%   Dewpoint: 74 F 

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 30% 
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10% 
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM 
  of the SLF, anvil clouds. 

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay 30% 
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10% 
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM 
  of the SLF, anvil clouds. 

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay 20% 
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10% 
Primary concern(s): Low cloud ceiling. 


Sunrise: 7 / 0704 EDT   Sunset: 7 / 1937 EDT 
         8 / 0704 EDT           8 / 1936 EDT 
         9 / 0705 EDT           9 / 1935 EDT 

Moonrise: 6 / 1909 EDT  Moonset: 7 / 0644 EDT  Illumination: 6-7 Sept. 99% 
          7 / 1945 EDT           8 / 0754 EDT                7-8 Sept. 100% 
          8 / 2020 EDT           9 / 0902 EDT                8-9 Sept. 97% 

Next forecast will be issued: 7 September 2006, 0700 EDT