Status Report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Oct 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
October 28, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 9682 (N12E32)
produced three M-class events during the period.  Regions 9672
(S18W67) and 9678 (N07W21) are both complex regions and possess a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  Region 9684 (N06E69) has
more than tripled its area since yesterday and now has an area
coverage of 510 millionths with ten spots visible.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  An isolated major flare is possible from Regions 9672,
9678 and 9682.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to major storm conditions.  A
shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 28/0242 UTC and created a sudden
impulse of 33 nt at the Earth at 28/0318 UTC.  This shock is
believed to be associated with the CME from 25 October.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible for 29 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 227
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct  230/230/225
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 200
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  035/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  012/015-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.