Status Report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Oct 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
October 27, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 27 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9672 (S18W53)
and Region 9678 (N07W07) produced 6 C-class flares.  Region 9682
(N12E45) produced the largest flare, a C9/1f at 27/2152 UTC.  Region
9672 remains complex with only a minor reduction is area coverage to
450 millionths.  Region 9678 has ceased its rapid growth but remains
complex and has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Region 9682
has shown significant growth and increased in magnetic complexity to
a beta-gamma-delta configuration.  New Region 9684 (N05E78) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 9672, 9678, and 9682 all have the
potential for a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels.  The CME shock from 
the X1/2b flare on 25/1502 UTC is expected early on the first day of
the period.  Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on the
first day of the period with possible major storm levels at the
higher latitudes.  Quiet to Active levels are expected on day two
and three of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    75/70/70
Class X    35/30/30
Proton     20/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 247
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct  250/245/245
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 199
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  035/030-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/25
Minor storm           35/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.