Status Report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10-17-2001

By SpaceRef Editor
October 17, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 9658 (S15W35)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 17/1116 UTC and also increased in area
and magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma.  Region 9661 (N16W08)
produced two minor C-class flares.  This region remains the largest
on the disc and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
Region 9669 (N13E42) has increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma configuration.  New Region 9671 (N15E32) was numbered
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with the potential for an isolated high
condition.  Region 9661 is rotating into geoeffective position and
has the potential to produce a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring
the occurrence of an earth-directed CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 217
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  220/220/225
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 187
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  008/012-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.