Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10-17-2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Oct 17 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9658 (S15W35) produced an M1/Sf flare at 17/1116 UTC and also increased in area and magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma. Region 9661 (N16W08) produced two minor C-class flares. This region remains the largest on the disc and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 9669 (N13E42) has increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. New Region 9671 (N15E32) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with the potential for an isolated high condition. Region 9661 is rotating into geoeffective position and has the potential to produce a major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed CME. III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Oct 217 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 220/220/225 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 187 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/012-008/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
