nt USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jul 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jul 2003
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 417 (S22W91) continued
to produce several C-class events during the period. There was an
observed Type II radio sweep associated with a C1 at 24/0249 UTC.
This seems to be from Region 417 which was optically correlated with
the SXI imagery. Region 410 (S13W79) continues to decay but
maintains a little of its magnetic complexity and is a beta gamma
group today. A new region emerged on the disk toady and was
numbered as Region 420 (N11E79). This is most likely the return of
old Region 397 which produced several M-class events during its last
rotation.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 410.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
- Class M 25/20/15
- Class X 05/05/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 24 Jul 125
- Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 120/125/125
- 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 010/011
- Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/30/25
- Minor storm 05/10/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/35/30
- Minor storm 10/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
