NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 09 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels. An M7 X-ray
flare occurred at 08/2328 UTC. Regions 9218 (N20W72), 9213 (N04W92),
and 9212 (N10W86) produced optical flares during the M7, thereby
making a single-point source determination difficult. This event was
accompanied by a halo CME, Type IV radio sweep, and a 710 sfu
Tenflare. Optically uncorrelated M1 X-ray flares occurred at 09/0314
UTC and 09/0610 UTC. Region 9221 (S14E06) produced an M1/Sf flare at
09/1613 UTC associated with an 8-degree filament disappearance. New
Region 9228 (N20E29) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares will be possible
during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active
conditions occurred during the 09/1500 - 1800 UTC period. Proton
events at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV were
associated with the M7 flare mentioned above. The greater than 100
MeV event began at 08/2355 UTC and reached a maximum of 347 pfu at
09/0350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event began at 08/2350 UTC and
reached a (preliminary) peak of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600 UTC. The
proton event was in progress as the period ended. A polar cap
absorption event was associated with the proton event. Peak
absorption was estimated to be 33 dB at 09/1640 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled levels during the first day. Activity is
expected to increase to active to major storm levels during the
remainder of the period due to an expected CME passage associated
with the M7 event mentioned above. The greater than 100 MeV proton
event is expected to end during the first day, but the greater than
10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through the period. The
polar cap absortion event is expected to continue through the period
as well.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    50/45/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     99/99/90
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 166
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  160/155/150
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  015/015-030/050-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor storm           10/40/20
Major-severe storm    05/25/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/40/20