NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 191 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 9077 (N16E55)
PRODUCED AN M5/1N AT 09/0723Z.  OUT OF THE 13 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE
DISK, REGION 9077 IS THE LARGEST WITH AN AREA OF 660 MILLIONTHS.  A
WEAK OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT
09/1117Z (ESTIMATED SHOCK SPEED 800 KM/S).  NEW REGION 9079 (S29E65)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGION 9070 (N19W24) AND REGION 9077 ARE BOTH CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING M-CLASS FLARES WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE SECOND
AND THIRD DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS DUE TO THE HALO CME
OBSERVED 07 JULY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUL 211
PREDICTED   10 JUL-12 JUL  215/220/220
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUL 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUL  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL  010/015-025/028-025/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/60/60
MINOR STORM           05/30/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/60/60
MINOR STORM           10/35/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05