NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Apr 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Apr 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 100 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 APR 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15E01)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 0416Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE DISK IN TERMS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND FLARE PRODUCTION, AND
CONTINUES TO POSSESS A SMALL DELTA SPOT. GROWTH IN THE REGION HAS
LEVELED OFF. NEW REGION 8953 (S14E72) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A FAIR-TO-GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL M-FLARES FROM REGION 8948.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED (510-600 KM/S)
BUT SHOWS LOW DENSITY (1-3 P/CC) AND WEAK MAGNETIC FIELDS (3 TO 5
NT).
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND QUIET
TO UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 APR-12 APR
CLASS M 60/60/60
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 09 APR 176
PREDICTED 10 APR-12 APR 175/170/170
90 DAY MEAN 09 APR 186
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 APR 008/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 APR 010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 APR-12 APR 010/010-007/010-005/008
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 APR-12 APR
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 15/10/10
MINOR STORM 10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/20/20
MINOR STORM 15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05
