NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 September 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Sep 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 252 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT WAS THE
LONG DURATION C7/SF FROM REGION 9151 (N13W61), WHICH COMMENCED AT
THE END OF LAST PERIOD AND PERSISTED INTO THIS ONE.  AN ASSOCIATED
TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS SUBSEQUENTLY REPORTED, AS WAS A PARTIAL HALO
CME FROM SOHO/LASCO.  TWO OTHER MINOR C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED TODAY,
ONE FROM REGION 9151, AND ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BE LOW TO
MODERATE.  ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY COULD STILL OCCUR FROM REGIONS
9151, 9149 (N14W78), OR 9154 (S17W49) BEFORE THEY ROTATE OFF THE
WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ONE PERIOD OF
MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES FROM 0900-1200 UTC. 
GREATER-THAN-TWO MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
ENHANCED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A WEAK
CORONAL HOLE.  THE RECENT CME ACTIVITY, DISCUSSED IN SECTION IA ABOVE, 
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 SEP-11 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 SEP 163
PREDICTED   09 SEP-11 SEP  160/155/150
90 DAY MEAN        08 SEP 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP  012/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP  017/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP  012/015-012/012-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 SEP-11 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05