Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 November 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
November 8, 2000
Filed under
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  A new region
assigned today as Region 9226 (N10W94) has produced two M-class and
several C-class events.  The first event was an M1 at 08/0958 UTC,
which was optically correlated with a CME visible in the LASCO/EIT
imagery.  The second event was an M2/1f at 08/1636 UTC. This region
emerged late yesterday and lies in close proximity to Region 9222
(N16W77) and Region 9213 (N04W78).  Another region was numbered
today as Region 9227 (S13E52).  An impressive full halo CME was
observed on LASCO near 08/0450 UTC, but appears to have originated
behind the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Activity is likely to decrease to low levels on day
three as the regions on the west limb rotate around the disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one and two of the
forecast period.  Day three is expected to be unsettled to active
due to a recurrent coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    50/50/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 173
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov  170/165/160
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  029/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  015/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/40
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.