NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 190 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED, WITH THE LARGEST A C6/1N AT 0734Z FROM REGION 9070
(N19W11). REGION 9073 (S19E04) GREW SUBSTANTIALLY AND PRODUCED
FREQUENT SUBFLARES. REGION 9071 (N22W62), THE SITE OF 2 M-CLASS
FLARES YESTERDAY, WAS QUIET. THERE ARE 12 SPOTTED REGIONS WITH THE
MOST RECENT ADDITION BEING REGION 9078 (S13E57).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9070 AND 9073 ARE THE PRIME SITES FOR CONTINUED
FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
A DISTURBANCE, DUE TO THE HALO CME THAT LEFT THE SUN ON 07 JULY, IS
EXPECTED ON 11 JULY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JUL-11 JUL
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 JUL 210
PREDICTED   09 JUL-11 JUL  215/220/225
90 DAY MEAN        08 JUL 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUL  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUL  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUL-11 JUL  010/012-010/015-025/028
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 JUL-11 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/60
MINOR STORM           05/05/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/50
MINOR STORM           05/05/40
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05