NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity became moderate. Region 9213 (N02W64)
produced an M1/1f flare with minor centimetric bursts at 07/1207Z
and a C3/Sf flare at 07/0347Z. This region is a moderately sized "H"
type spot in white light, but appears slightly more complex in
today's magnetograms. Minor C-class flaring was also observed on the
west limb near Region 9210 (S26W80) and near what appears to be a
developing region near N15W85. New regions 9224 (N28W61) and 9225
(S19W16) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate through day one, but low during days two and three as
active longitudes rotate around the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels at mid
latitudes with mostly active to major storm levels at high
latitudes. This disturbance is associated with the 3 Nov CME that
was first detected at the ACE spacecraft at 06/0915Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. The minor to major geomagnetic
storm, experienced over the past two days appears almost over.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 180
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  180/175/170
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  028/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  030/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  010/020-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05