NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 June 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Jun 07 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 159 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JUN 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z

TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  REGION 9026 (N20W03) PRODUCED

AN X1/3B EVENT AT 07/1553Z.  THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 200 SFU

TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 826 KM/S, AND A WEAK TYPE

IV SWEEP.  LASCO/EIT IMAGERY ALSO OBSERVED A FAINT HALO CME WITH

THIS EVENT.  EARLIER, REGION 9031 (S31W77) PRODUCED AN M2/1B EVENT

AT 07/0444Z.  REGION 9026 RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC

CONFIGURATION WITH 27 SPOTS, BUT HAS DECREASED SOME IN OVERALL AREA.

THE REGION AREA DECREASED FROM APPROXIMATELY 800 MILLIONTHS

YESTERDAY TO 590 MILLIONTHS TODAY.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED

TODAY.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT

MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.  REGION 9026 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE

M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO  UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 10

MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT

THRESHOLD AT 07/1335Z AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (07/2100Z FLUX AT 25

PFU).

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF

AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE, THE

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS

OF THE PERIOD TO ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.  THE THIRD DAY MAY

FIRST SEE A SHORT DECLINE IN ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO

STORMING LEVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THE X1/3B

EVENT TODAY.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JUN-10 JUN

CLASS M    70/70/70

CLASS X    20/15/15

PROTON     15/15/10

PCAF       RED

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           07 JUN 180

PREDICTED   08 JUN-10 JUN  190/200/210

90 DAY MEAN        07 JUN 189

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUN  013/016

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUN  012/015

PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUN-10 JUN  040/045-060/075-025/040

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JUN-10 JUN

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                50/30/40

MINOR STORM           25/40/20

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/25/15

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                30/10/30

MINOR STORM           40/60/30

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    25/30/20