NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C2
x-ray event at 1011Z which was not observed optically. All of the
regions on the disk were quiet and stable. An 8 degree filament near
S40E06 disappeared sometime during the past 24 hours. The event is
spatially correlated with a CME that entered the LASCO/C2 field of
view at 1006Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active during the past 24
hours. Yesterday's disturbance persisted through 05/2400Z but
conditions became quiet after 06/0000Z with the northward turning of
the interplanetary magnetic field. Today's solar wind was
characterized by declining speeds, low densities, and weak,
northwardly directed magnetic fields, all of which lead to
predominantly quiet conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next two days, and is expected
to become unsettled by the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 158
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  150/140/135
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  058/096
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  005/010-005/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05