NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 November 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 06 0010 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2000
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class events
occurred with the largest one being a C5/1f event from Region 9218
(N20W14) at 05/0149Z. New regions 9222 (N17W35) and 9223 (S19E71)
were numbered today. Region 9222 has shown strong growth during the
period. An active dark filament lies between Regions 9218 and 9222.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Overall, there is an increasing number of regions on
the disk capable of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The effects of
the earth-directed CME back on 01 November have subsided.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase to predominantly unsettled to active conditions
the first day of the period due to the arrival of a weak full halo
CME on 03 November. Minor storm conditions are possible in the
higher latitudes. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to
quiet to unsettled conditions for the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 50/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 186
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 185/185/180
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 015/018-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/20
Minor storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/30/25
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01