Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 November 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
November 6, 2000
Filed under
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 06 0010 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several minor C-class events
occurred with the largest one being a C5/1f event from Region 9218
(N20W14) at 05/0149Z.  New regions 9222 (N17W35) and 9223 (S19E71)
were numbered today.  Region 9222 has shown strong growth during the
period.  An active dark filament lies between Regions 9218 and 9222.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Overall, there is an increasing number of regions on
the disk capable of producing M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.  The effects of
the earth-directed CME back on 01 November have subsided.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase to predominantly unsettled to active conditions
the first day of the period due to the arrival of a weak full halo
CME on 03 November.  Minor storm conditions are possible in the
higher latitudes.  The geomagnetic field is expected to return to
quiet to unsettled conditions for the rest of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    50/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 186
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  185/185/180
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  015/018-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/25
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.