NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 May 2000
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 06 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 127 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION B9
X-RAY ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED FROM 06/0945-1133Z. COINCIDENT IN TIME
WITH THIS EVENT WAS A SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR
N26E39. A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FROM THE
NORTHEAST LIMB FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. DISK REGIONS WERE SMALL AND
EXHIBITED LITTLE EVOLUTION. A PROMINENCE NEAR SW34 SLOWLY ELEVATED
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF ERUPTING.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ONLY ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC
PROTON FLUXES WERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ABOVE BACKGROUND BUT FAR BELOW
EVENT LEVEL.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NO
RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 MAY-09 MAY
CLASS M 05/05/05
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 06 MAY 127
PREDICTED 07 MAY-09 MAY 127/130/133
90 DAY MEAN 06 MAY 188
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY 012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY 010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY 010/010-010/010-007/005
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 MAY-09 MAY
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 10/10/10
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 15/10/10
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
