NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Mar 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 06 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 066 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z

TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.

TODAY’S LARGEST EVENT WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C4 FLARE AT

1049Z. REGION 8891 (S16W58) IS DECLINING SLOWLY BUT CONTINUES TO BE

THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK. REGION 8898 (S13E20) CONTINUED TO

GROW AND SHOWED OCCASIONAL BRIGHTENINGS AND SUBFLARE ACTIVITY.

REGION 8900 (S15W12) IS ALSO GROWING, BUT WAS QUIETER THAN 8898.

REGION 8889 (N19W74), WHICH HAS BEEN VERY STABLE OVER THE LAST FEW

DAYS,  PRODUCED A C3/SF AT 1619Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIGHT

SURGE ON THE LIMB. SOHO/EIT IMAGES SHOWED THE ERUPTION OF A FILAMENT

IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE DISK ON THE 5TH AROUND 1700Z.

CORONAGRAPH DATA SHOW THAT THE CME MATERIAL IS NOT DIRECTED TOWARDS

THE EARTH.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT

OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FROM REGION 8891, 8898, OR 8900.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY

CROSSING WAS OBSERVED AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 06/0200Z. SINCE THAT

TIME, SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD

HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 MAR-09 MAR

CLASS M    50/50/50

CLASS X    10/10/10

PROTON     10/10/10

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           06 MAR 222

PREDICTED   07 MAR-09 MAR  225/220/215

90 DAY MEAN        06 MAR 171

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAR  004/007

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAR  012/012

PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAR-09 MAR  007/010-007/010-007/008

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 MAR-09 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                20/20/20

MINOR STORM           10/10/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                25/25/25

MINOR STORM           15/15/15

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05