NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 June 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Jun 06 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 158 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JUN 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z

TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. THREE MAJOR EVENTS OCCURRED IN

THE PERIOD, ALL FROM REGION 9026 (N20E10). A X1/2B FLARE WITH AN

ACCOMPANYING 560 SFU TENFLARE OCCURRED AT 06/1339UT. THIS EVENT WAS

FOLLOWED BY AN M7/2N EVENT AT 06/1401UT. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE

PERIOD WAS AN X2/3B FLARE AT 06/1525UT. THIS EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A

TYPE II SWEEP (1189 KM/S), A TYPE IV SWEEP, A 2300 SFU TENFLARE, AND

AN 11-DEGREE LONG FILAMENT ERUPTION. A FULL-HALO CME WAS CREATED BY

THIS EVENT AND WAS MONITORED BY THE LASCO/EIT SPACECRAFT TODAY.

REGION 9026 REMAINS A LARGE REGION (800 MILLIONTHS) WITH AN “F” TYPE

BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 9034

(S10E67).

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT

MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO

PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS ALONG WITH ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH A SINGLE

PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT MID-LATITUDES FROM 06/18-2100UT. AFTER

THAT PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD APPEARED TO SETTLE DOWN

APPRECIABLY AND ENDED THE DAY AT QUIET LEVELS. THE D-REGION

ABSORPTION FROM THE INTENSE (X2) X-RAY EVENT EXTENDED TO THE POLAR

CAP REGIONS OF THE DAYLIGHT SIDE OF THE EARTH.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE

PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. ACTIVITY SHOULD

INCREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING ON THE SECOND DAY OF THE

PERIOD, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL-HALO CME, AS

DESCRIBED ABOVE. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ON THE THIRD DAY TO MAJOR

STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JUN-09 JUN

CLASS M    75/75/75

CLASS X    25/25/25

PROTON     25/25/25

PCAF       YELLOW

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           06 JUN 186

PREDICTED   07 JUN-09 JUN  185/195/210

90 DAY MEAN        06 JUN 189

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUN  022/026

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN  018/018

PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN  015/018-030/035-050/075

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JUN-09 JUN

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                30/50/40

MINOR STORM           15/25/35

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/20/25

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                45/50/40

MINOR STORM           25/30/35

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/20/25