NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 188 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS, AMONG
THEM A C4/SF FROM REGION 9070 (N18E15) WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP
AT 1236Z, OCCURRED. ANOTHER C4, WITH NO OPTICAL ASSOCIATION, WAS
DETECTED AT 2045Z. TWO NEW REGIONS, 9075 (N06E64) AND 9076 (S24E69)
WERE NUMBERED. REGIONS 9068 (S18W03) AND 9070 WERE THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE OF THE 13 REGIONS VISIBLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND, EMANATING FROM AN ELONGATED N-S CORONAL HOLE,
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MAGNETOSPHERE JULY 7. THAT SHORT-LIVED
DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JUL-09 JUL
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JUL 174
PREDICTED   07 JUL-09 JUL  180/185/190
90 DAY MEAN        06 JUL 180
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUL  006/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUL  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUL-09 JUL  015/015-010/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JUL-09 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01