NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 June 2000

 Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Jun 05 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 157 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JUN 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z

TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THREE SIGNIFICANT FLARES

WERE OBSERVED FROM THREE DIFFERENT REGIONS. THE FIRST AND LARGEST

WAS AN M3 X-RAY EVENT WITH ACCOMPANYING TENFLARE FROM REGION 9026

(N20E23). THIS REGION IS BY FAR THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION

ON THE VISIBLE DISK WITH OVER 800 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA IN

AN “E” TYPE BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGION 9024 (S11W45)

PRODUCED A C4/1F FLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS AT 05/0325Z.

THERE IS NO NOTEWORTHY MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY OBVIOUS IN THIS REGION

WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN DECAY. AN M1/1F FLARE ERUPTED FROM REGION

9031 (S32W52) AT 05/1359Z. ONLY MINOR GROWTH NOTED IN THIS REGION.

NEW REGIONS 9032 (S18E41) AND 9033 (N24E77) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT

MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE M-CLASS

FLARES WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN X-CLASS FLARE.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR

STORMING CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THESE DISTURBED CONDITIONS

FOLLOWED THE SUDDEN IMPULSE OBSERVED AT 04/1500Z.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THROUGH DAY

ONE. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY TWO.

UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE LIKELY ON DAY THREE DUE

TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF

EFFECTS FROM THIS MORNING’S C4/CME AT 05/0325Z.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JUN-08 JUN

CLASS M    70/70/70

CLASS X    10/10/10

PROTON     10/10/10

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           05 JUN 171

PREDICTED   06 JUN-08 JUN  175/185/195

90 DAY MEAN        05 JUN 189

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUN  011/012

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUN  020/025

PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUN-08 JUN  015/015-010/010-015/020

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JUN-08 JUN

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                40/30/40

MINOR STORM           20/15/30

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/20

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                50/40/40

MINOR STORM           30/25/35

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/15/25