NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 218 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY TWO LOW C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED - AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 FLARE AT 05/0433Z AND A
C1/SF AT 05/0140Z FROM DEVELOPING REGION 9110 (S19W07). MINOR GROWTH
WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9114 (N12E41) AND 9115 (N16E56), BOTH
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL FLARES AND BRIGHTENINGS. NEW REGIONS 9117
(S09W07), 9118 (N18W02), AND 9119 (S13E08) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. OCCASIONAL LOW C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A SINGLE
PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING, MOSTLY AT HIGH LATITUDES, OCCURRED BETWEEN
05/06 - 09Z. THE PERIOD BEGAN WITH QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS,
BUT BY 05/06Z, SOLAR WIND SPEED BEGAN TO INCREASE, REACHING 600KM/S
BY AROUND 05/10Z. BZ SUSTAINED EXTENDED PERIODS OF NEAR -10NT.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR CERTAIN THE ORIGIN OF THE
DISTURBANCE, BUT IT MAY BE FROM HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE FLOW,
PRECEDED BY A SUBSTANTIAL CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE WHILE THE
PRESENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH
LATITUDES ARE LIKELY. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 AUG-08 AUG
CLASS M    25/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 AUG 159
PREDICTED   06 AUG-08 AUG  165/170/175
90 DAY MEAN        05 AUG 190
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 AUG  013/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 AUG  023/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 AUG-08 AUG  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 AUG-08 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                55/35/35
MINOR STORM           30/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/05/01