Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 October 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
October 4, 2000
Filed under
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event was a C3/Sf
flare at 04/1514Z from Region 9181 (S27E41).  Region 9178 (S22W16)
also produced two small C-class flares.  Regions 9185 (S18W49) and
9186 (N14W41) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels with major
storm conditions at high latitudes.  Storming conditions are the
result of the passage of a magnetic cloud.  Data from the ACE
spacecraft showed a smooth rotation of Bz to strong negative values
starting at approximately 04/00Z; Bz remained negative for the rest
of the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the first day
and quiet to unsettled for the following two days.  Effects from the
CME of 02 October are expected on day one of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 184
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct  180/180/170
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 184
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  019/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  030/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  025/025-012/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.