NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 October 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Oct 04 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C3/Sf flare at 04/1514Z from Region 9181 (S27E41). Region 9178 (S22W16) also produced two small C-class flares. Regions 9185 (S18W49) and 9186 (N14W41) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels with major storm conditions at high latitudes. Storming conditions are the result of the passage of a magnetic cloud. Data from the ACE spacecraft showed a smooth rotation of Bz to strong negative values starting at approximately 04/00Z; Bz remained negative for the rest of the day. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the first day and quiet to unsettled for the following two days. Effects from the CME of 02 October are expected on day one of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Oct 184 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 180/180/170 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 184 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 019/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 030/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 025/025-012/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 20/10/10 Major-severe storm 10/05/05
