NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 November 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Nov 04 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only several minor C-class events were observed. The SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates a weak full halo earth-directed CME occurred from a long duration C3/sf yesterday at approximately 03/2000Z. The C3 event was produced by Region 9213 near disk center at the time. Moderate decay was observed in Region 9212 (N09W20) since yesterday. New Region 9221 (S15E75) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm. A shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at L1 at approximately 04/0130Z. A sudden impulse occurred at 04/0222Z (12 nT, as measured by the boulder USGS magnetometer). Unsettled to minor storm conditions were observed following the shock arrival. This shock is presumed to be related to the full halo CME back on 1 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit also briefly became enhanced near the time of the sudden impulse. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active during the first day of the period. Minor storm levels are possible in the higher latitudes. Active conditions may continue on the second day due to the expected arrival of the weak full halo CME on 03 November mentioned above in 1a. By the third day conditions are expected to return to predominantly quiet to unsettled. A high-speed coronal hole stream may also help keep activity levels unsettled throughout the period. III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Nov 195 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 012/015-015/020-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/25 Minor storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/45/30 Minor storm 20/20/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01
