NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 May 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 May 04 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 125 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 MAY 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z

TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  REGION 8970 (S14W105), FROM

BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, PRODUCED AN M6 X-RAY EVENT AT 04/1108Z

WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.  EARLIER, AT 03/2310Z, REGION 8970

PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY EVENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE

SYSTEM.  SOME DECAY WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8980 (S15W08), WHILE NO

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE SEEN IN REGION 8981 (S22W10).  NEW REGION

8983 (N25E58) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV

ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY WITH A CHANCE OF

ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY

CLASS M    20/20/20

CLASS X    01/01/01

PROTON     01/01/01

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           04 MAY 135

PREDICTED   05 MAY-07 MAY  130/130/135

90 DAY MEAN        04 MAY 189

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY  013/015

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY  010/010

PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY  010/010-015/015-012/012

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                25/30/30

MINOR STORM           05/10/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                35/35/40

MINOR STORM           10/10/15

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01