NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 June 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Jun 04 2300 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 156 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JUN 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z

TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9026(N20E36) WAS BY FAR THE MOST

ACTIVE REGION ON THE DISK. IT HAS AN AREA OF 870 MILLIONTHS AND A

FKI BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE

MODERATE TO HIGH. M AND POSSIBLY X-CLASS EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM

REGION 9026.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 5

NT WAS OBSERVED AT 04/1500UT.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JUN-07 JUN

CLASS M    70/70/70

CLASS X    10/10/10

PROTON     10/10/10

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           04 JUN 170

PREDICTED   05 JUN-07 JUN  170/175/180

90 DAY MEAN        04 JUN 190

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUN  009/012

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUN  010/010

PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUN-07 JUN  010/010-010/010-010/008

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JUN-07 JUN

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01