NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 186 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A NUMBER OF LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED IN A VARIETY OF REGIONS. SUNSPOT GROUPS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE ACTIVITY INCLUDED 9062 (S16W46), 9068 (S20E26), AND 9070
(N18E44). NONE OF THE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE DISK ARE PARTICULARLY
LARGE OR COMPLEX.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. 
C-CLASS FARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT AREAS, INCLUDING
9062, 9068, AND 9070.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JUL 158
PREDICTED   05 JUL-07 JUL  160/160/160
90 DAY MEAN        04 JUL 180
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUL  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUL  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUL-07 JUL  015/015-015/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01