NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Aug 04 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 217 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 AUG 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ISOLATED, OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED LOW C-CLASS ACTIVITY OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SMALL FAINT FLARES WERE OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9114 (N13E54) AND 9115 (N17E68), BUT MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS IN THESE REGIONS APPEAR RATHER SIMPLE. A LARGE, DARK FILAMENT NEAR DISK CENTER WAS QUITE ACTIVE AND MAY SOON ERUPT. NEW REGION 9116 (S12E63) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED LOW C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH A SINGLE MINOR STORM PERIOD BETWEEN 04/06 - 09Z. PERIODS OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD BZ ARE CAUSING THIS MINOR DISTURBANCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 AUG-07 AUG CLASS M 30/30/35 CLASS X 01/01/05 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 04 AUG 154 PREDICTED 05 AUG-07 AUG 160/165/170 90 DAY MEAN 04 AUG 190 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 AUG 008/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 AUG 014/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 AUG-07 AUG 010/010-010/010-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 AUG-07 AUG A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/30/30 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 35/35/35 MINOR STORM 15/15/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
