NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 31 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9209
(S22W06) produced isolated C-class flares, the largest of which was
a C6/1f at 31/0300 UTC. The visible regions were largely stable. No
new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9209 and 9212 (N10E34) appear capable of
producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels through
31/1700 UTC, then increased to unsettled to active levels following
a sudden impulse at 31/1715 UTC (8 nT, as measured by the Boulder
USGS magnetometer). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit became enhanced beginning at approximately
31/1200 UTC, but did not reach event criteria. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high
levels late in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels during day one. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for the rest of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is not expected to reach high
levels during the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 193
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  190/190/185
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  015/018-010/015-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01