Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 May 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
May 31, 2000
Filed under

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 31 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 152 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. INTERMITTENT C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C4 AT 1359Z. THE SOURCE OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE BEHIND THE EAST LIMB, WHERE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE ENHANCED X-RAY AND WHITE LIGHT EMISSION CONCURRENT WITH THE
X-RAY BURSTS. THE DISK REGIONS HAVE BEEN STABLE. ONE NEW REGION,
9025 (N15W64), EMERGED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW REGION ON THE NE LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SHORT-LIVED
SUBSTORM BROUGHT MINOR STORM CONDITIONS TO MID-LATITUDES FROM
0300-0600Z. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED CONTINUES TO FALL, NOW JUST ABOVE
500 KM/S. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS
HIGH AGAIN TODAY.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SUBSTORMS MAY
OCCUR IN LOCAL MIDNIGHT SECTORS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 JUN-03 JUN
CLASS M 10/20/30
CLASS X 01/05/05
PROTON 01/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 31 MAY 154
PREDICTED 01 JUN-03 JUN 160/165/170
90 DAY MEAN 31 MAY 192
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAY 012/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAY 010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUN-03 JUN 010/012-010/010-010/008
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 JUN-03 JUN
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/20/20
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/25/25
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.