NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 July 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Jul 31 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 213 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 JUL 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED. THE LARGEST WAS A C3 OBSERVED AT 31/0206Z. REGION 9107 WAS SPLIT INTO TWO REGIONS TODAY: REGION 9107 (S16E38), AND NEW REGION 9110 (S19E55), WITH BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION AND DSO AND ESO SPOT CLASSIFICATIONS, RESPECTIVELY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT A LOW LEVEL FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS, WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY BY DAY THREE DUE TO ROTATION OF ACTIVE REGIONS AROUND THE EAST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS OBSERVED IN THE LOCAL NIGHTTIME SECTOR AT MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH ACTIVE PERIODS DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY BY DAY THREE. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 AUG-03 AUG CLASS M 20/20/25 CLASS X 01/01/05 PROTON 01/01/05 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 31 JUL 148 PREDICTED 01 AUG-03 AUG 155/155/165 90 DAY MEAN 31 JUL 189 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUL 010/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JUL 014/016 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 AUG-03 AUG 012/018-012/018-010/015 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 AUG-03 AUG A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/30/25 MINOR STORM 10/10/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 35/35/30 MINOR STORM 15/15/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
