NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 31 2250 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 244 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9143 (S18W20) PRODUCED
TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C1/SF AT 0656Z. THIS GROUP HAS SHOWN SLIGHT
DECAY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 9149 (N12E32) CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS STABLE AND QUIET. NEW REGIONS
9150 (N11E51), 9151 (N05E42), AND 9152 (N17E75) ARE SMALL, STABLE
GROUPS THAT WERE ASSIGNED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT-TO-FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED
CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EFFECTS FROM THE CORONAL HOLE STREAM ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 SEP-03 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 AUG 163
PREDICTED   01 SEP-03 SEP  165/163/161
90 DAY MEAN        31 AUG 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 AUG  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG  015/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 SEP-03 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05