NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 30 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event during the
period was a C4/1F from Region 9209 (S23E07) at 30/1350Z.  Moderate
growth was observed in Region 9212 (N07E46) since yesterday.  No new
regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9209 and 9212 each have the capability to
produce an isoloated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm.  One period
of minor storm conditions was observed from 30/0000 - 30/0300Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to mostly quiet to unsettled during the period.  There is a
chance of active to isolated minor storm conditions during the first
day if an interplanetary shock arrives at the earth from the M4/2B
event early back on 29 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 194
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov  198/205/205
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  024/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  015/020-012/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05