NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 May 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 30 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 151 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY
WAS AN UNOBSERVED C5 AT 2041Z. OF THE 9 SPOTTED REGIONS, REGION 9017
(S13E02) IS THE MOST INTERESTING. IT HAD A C1/0F VERY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, AT 29/2346Z.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE MOST COMMON. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
RELATED TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM, WITH A VELOCITY OF
600-650 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT APPROXIMATELY 1400Z.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH-SPEED
STREAM SHOULD DIMINISH, AND STRICTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 MAY-02 JUN
CLASS M 10/10/10
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 30 MAY 146
PREDICTED 31 MAY-02 JUN 145/145/145
90 DAY MEAN 30 MAY 192
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAY 019/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAY 020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAY-02 JUN 015/018-015/015-010/012
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 MAY-02 JUN
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 30/30/20
MINOR STORM 10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 35/35/25
MINOR STORM 15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01
