NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 June 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jun 30 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 182 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED THIS PERIOD. REGION 9062 (S16E09) AT 440
MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA, IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE
DISK, BUT REMAINS QUITE STABLE. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY - REGION 9065 (N22E62), 9066 (N12E62), AND 9067 (S20E60). THE
REMAINING REGIONS WERE GENERALLY STABLE OR IN DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE FOR ISOLATED LOW C-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS REGION 9062.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 JUL-03 JUL
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 JUN 160
PREDICTED   01 JUL-03 JUL  165/170/180
90 DAY MEAN        30 JUN 182
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUN  007/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUL-03 JUL  010/010-012/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 JUL-03 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01