NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 July 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 30 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 212 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 JUL 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 FLARE AT 30/1210Z. SOHO/EIT
IMAGERY SUGGESTS REGION 9107 (S18E56) AS THE LIKELY SOURCE. A C4/SF
FLARE WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9105 (N16E40) AT 30/1314Z, AND REGION
9103 (N11W26) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFAINT FLARES WITHOUT NOTABLE X-RAY
ENHANCEMENT. SOME SMALLER C-CLASS FLARES WERE ALSO OBSERVED DURING
THE DAY, BUT WITHOUT OPTICAL CORRELATION.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED MODERATE-LEVEL ACTIVITY BY THE THIRD DAY DUE TO
RETURNING REGIONS EXPECTED ON THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS OF LOCAL SUBSTORMING OBSERVED IN THE NIGHTTIME
SECTOR.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH A GREATER
CHANCE OF ACTIVE PERIODS AND ISOLATED MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER
LATITUDES FROM INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLES EXPECTED ON DAY TWO AND
THREE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 JUL-02 AUG
CLASS M 20/20/25
CLASS X 01/01/05
PROTON 01/01/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 30 JUL 150
PREDICTED 31 JUL-02 AUG 150/155/155
90 DAY MEAN 30 JUL 189
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUL 017/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL 010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG 008/008-012/018-012/018
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 JUL-02 AUG
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/30/30
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/35/35
MINOR STORM 10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01