NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 30 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 212 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 FLARE AT 30/1210Z.  SOHO/EIT
IMAGERY SUGGESTS REGION 9107 (S18E56) AS THE LIKELY SOURCE.  A C4/SF
FLARE WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9105 (N16E40) AT 30/1314Z, AND REGION
9103 (N11W26) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFAINT FLARES WITHOUT NOTABLE X-RAY
ENHANCEMENT.  SOME SMALLER C-CLASS FLARES WERE ALSO OBSERVED DURING
THE DAY, BUT WITHOUT OPTICAL CORRELATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED MODERATE-LEVEL ACTIVITY BY THE THIRD DAY DUE TO
RETURNING REGIONS EXPECTED ON THE EAST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS OF LOCAL SUBSTORMING OBSERVED IN THE NIGHTTIME
SECTOR.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH A GREATER
CHANCE OF ACTIVE PERIODS AND ISOLATED MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER
LATITUDES FROM INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLES EXPECTED ON DAY TWO AND
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 JUL-02 AUG
CLASS M    20/20/25
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 JUL 150
PREDICTED   31 JUL-02 AUG  150/155/155
90 DAY MEAN        30 JUL 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUL  017/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG  008/008-012/018-012/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 JUL-02 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01