NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 30 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 243 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S MOST SIGNIFICANT X-RAY
EVENT WAS A LONG DURATION C4 EVENT FROM 29/2235Z TO 30/0028Z. THERE
WAS AN ASSOCIATED CME DIRECTED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHICH
WAS OBSERVED TO ENTER THE C2 FIELD OF VIEW AT 29/2354Z AND THE C3
FIELD OF VIEW AT 30/0042Z. DISK ACTIVITY WAS APPARENT IN EIT IMAGES
BETWEEN REGIONS 9148 (S19E18) AND 9143 (S18W06). ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REGION
9149 (N11E44) IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK WITH AN
AREA OF 330 MILLIONTHS. THE GROUP APPEARS TO BE STABLE AT THIS TIME.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT-TO-FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ACE INDICATE
THE CONTINUATION OF A HIGH-SPEED, POSITIVE-POLARITY,  CORONAL HOLE
STREAM. THE FLOW SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING SLOWLY AS EVIDENCED BY A
GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE VELOCITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH (GREATER THAN 1000 PFU) DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 AUG-02 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 AUG 165
PREDICTED   31 AUG-02 SEP  168/168/165
90 DAY MEAN        30 AUG 182
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG  021/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG  018/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP  012/012-012/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 AUG-02 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05