NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 September 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Sep 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 247 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 SEP 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. A SINGLE
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
REGION 9149 (N14W10) WAS STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT REMAINED A
MEDIUM-SIZED E-TYPE GROUP WITH MINOR POLARITY MIXING OBSERVED NEAR
ITS LEADER SPOT. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY SMALL, STABLE,
AND SIMPLY STRUCTURED. NEW REGION 9155 (S11E32) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 9149.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP
CLASS M 20/20/20
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 03 SEP 154
PREDICTED 04 SEP-06 SEP 155/160/165
90 DAY MEAN 03 SEP 181
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 SEP 018/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP 008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP 012/012-012/012-010/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/25/20
MINOR STORM 10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 30/30/25
MINOR STORM 15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/10/05