NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 October 2000
:Product: 1003RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Oct 03 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C4/Sf at 02/2131Z from region 9182 (S02E63). Region 9177 (N28W68) produced a C1/Sf flare at 03/0736Z with an associated type II radio sweep (shock speed 400 km/s). A few small C-class flares punctuated the remainder of the day. New regions 9183 (S31W32) and 9184 (S15E60) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm conditions, with isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes. Data from the ACE spacecraft showed the signature of a solar transient beginning at approximately 03/00Z, although a clear shock was not evident. The Boulder magnetometer registered a sudden impulse of 11 nanoteslas at 03/0057Z. This transient is possibly due to the C3/Sf flare observed at 01/1304Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with minor storming possible for the first two days of the forecast period. Effects from a CME seen yesterday are expected over the first two days. By day three the field should be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Oct 192 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 190/185/185 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 184 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 025/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 015/015-020/020-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/15 Minor storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 20/20/10 Major-severe storm 10/10/05 .
