NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Only several minor C-class
events were observed during the period from Regions 9210 (S27W30)
and 9212 (N09W08).  Slight growth occurred in Regions 9212 and 9218
(N19E12).  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase during the first day of the period to active
conditions, due to the arrival of the full halo CME observed on 1
November.  Minor to major storm levels are possible in the higher
latitudes.  Active conditions are expected to decrease by late on
the second day and become predominantly quiet to unsettled by the
end of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 199
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  200/195/190
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  020/020-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/25
Minor storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01