NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 May 2000
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 124 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 03/0043Z. SOME MODERATE
GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8981 (S22E03) AS THE REGION GREW FROM
5 TO 10 SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE OCCURRED ON
THE SOUTHWEST LIMB FROM REGION 8970 (S14W92) AT APPROXIMATELY
03/0030Z. NEW REGION 8982 (S20E19) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8970 OR 8971
(N18W85) AS EACH REGION PASSES OVER THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR ONE PERIOD FROM
03/1500-1800Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 MAY-06 MAY
CLASS M 30/25/25
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 03 MAY 137
PREDICTED 04 MAY-06 MAY 135/130/130
90 DAY MEAN 03 MAY 189
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY 013/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY 015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY 010/012-010/010-015/015
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 MAY-06 MAY
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/25/30
MINOR STORM 05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 35/35/40
MINOR STORM 10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
