NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Mar

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 03 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 063 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z

TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8886 (S12W87)

PRODUCED TODAY’S LARGEST EVENT, AN M4/SN AT 1046Z. THE REGION

EXHIBITED BRIGHT PLAGE WITH FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY

AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8882 (S15W70) ALSO PRODUCED

AN M-CLASS EVENT: AN M3/1B AT 0214Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE

IV RADIO SWEEP EVENT. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST ON THE

DISK, BUT WAS SHOWING SOME EARLY INDICATORS OF DECAY NEAR DAY’S END.

REGION 8891 (S15W17) IS ALSO LARGE BUT WAS STABLE THROUGHOUT THE

PERIOD. A FAINT CME COULD BE OBSERVED WITH THE SOHO DATA FROM THE

SOUTHWEST LIMB, BEGINNING AT 0454Z. A SUBSEQUENT BRIGHT, LARGE CME

WAS OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB BEGINNING AT 0654Z. NEITHER OF

THESE CME’S HAD AN OBVIOUS ASSOCIATED COUNTERPART ON THE DISK,

IMPLYING THAT THEY BOTH ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE SOLAR LIMB.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE

MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED

MAJOR FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE FROM REGION 8882, OR POSSIBLY

REGIONS 8886 OR 8891.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN

INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBILITY

OF A GLANCING BLOW FROM RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ASSOCIATED

WITH THE M6 AND X1 FLARES OF 02 MARCH. A DIRECT HIT IS NOT LIKELY

SINCE NEITHER OF THESE CME’S WERE OBSERVED AS HALO CME’S AND ARE NOT

THOUGHT TO BE DIRECTED TOWARDS THE EARTH.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 MAR-06 MAR

CLASS M    65/65/65

CLASS X    20/20/20

PROTON     20/20/20

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           03 MAR 204

PREDICTED   04 MAR-06 MAR  200/195/190

90 DAY MEAN        03 MAR 169

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR  007/008

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR  005/007

PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR  015/028-015/025-010/020

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 MAR-06 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                25/25/20

MINOR STORM           15/15/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                30/30/25

MINOR STORM           15/15/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05